Recession Probability
This is a composite probability of recession based on the six economic indicators below. Each indicator is weighted according to its historical accuracy in predicting recessions.
Latest Analysis
View all articles →Yield Curve Inversion: What It Means for the EconomyBy Jane Economist•
The yield curve has been inverted for several months. Here's what history tells us about what might happen next.
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Consumer Sentiment Index tracks how consumers feel about their personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions.
Sentiment is moderating but remains above levels typically associated with recessions. The trend bears watching.
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places
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Housing Building Permits track the number of new privately-owned housing units authorized in permit-issuing places, a key leading indicator of future construction activity.
Housing permits are moderately below the 50-day moving average, indicating some weakness in the housing sector.